Budget
The Trump Put lives on, A rate cut in May, Batteries for everyone, We're still reliant on luck, and Who drives in Australia.
Just like that, and the tariff scare is over—or is it? Global markets rallied 5-10% yesterday because Trump, in the face of a near-certain recession and equity and bond market carnage, backed off and hit pause.
The unwanted Budget, Don't blame Alfred for inflation, Productivity not protectionism, You don't need six figures to afford rent, Dutton's dangerous idea, and Solar's Achilles' heel
Please note that I’m travelling internationally this week and will have limited access to a computer, so Aussienomics will be taking a short breather ahead of the inevitable chaos that will be the run-up to the federal election, which—if called by the end of this month—could be held as soon as 3 May.
Rate cuts may not help Albo, Cost of living still elevated, We need fiscal rules, and Australia doesn't deserve a sovereign wealth fund.
Sometime this week US President Trump is set to unveil reciprocal tariffs “that match the duties imposed by other countries”. Australia has very few tariffs left these days and has had a trade agreement with the US since 2005, so presumably won’t be targeted (the agricultural exemptions were inserted to protect US farmers, not Australian).
Getting serious about housing, ending the Future Fund, the latest bird flu, just tell the truth, and lessons from the NBN
I trust everyone’s nice and refreshed from the summer break! Lots of interesting things to discuss today, starting with some positive-sounding housing policy news from NSW.
Potentially good news on housing # The NSW government and the opposition are getting serious about housing:
The budget update, workers not jobs, the costs of industrial policy, one year of Milei, and the bullish case for hydrogen
The mid-year budget update was depressingly bad; AI won’t leave a third of workers unemployable; a Future Made in Australia will politicise the economy; Argentina’s remarkable year and what it means for Australia; another look at hydrogen; and the per capita recession may already be over.